ymakerpi8d
: 05.06.23
: 166
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 : 05, 2023 9:33 am : NFL Week 13 best bets Chiefs expose Raid |
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We'll get to the picks in a second, but since it's officially Thanksgiving, let's attend to some important busine s first: Whole Turkey - $5Mashed Potatoes - $5Ca serole - $3 Bru sel Sprouts - $4 Gravy - $3 No de sert Sean Wagner-McGough Darcy Kuemper Jersey (@seanjwagner) You need the whole turkey because that guarantees leftovers and the breakfast after Thanksgiving is almost as good as Thanksgiving dinner itself. Mashed potatoes, gravy, and ca serole are requirements. And I'll defend bru sel sprouts until the day I die. They're the of Thanksgiving: . If they're cooked right, they're e sential. Finally, it's not that I don't like de sert. It's just that, the only de sert I really want is pumpkin pie and there was just no way for me to free up $5. So give me the whole turkey and I'll fill myself up that way. No de sert nece sary. Gravy is better than pie anyway. Anyway, onto the football, because something important happened last week: I finally pieced together my first 5-0 week of the season with my five weekly best bets after starting the year 1-9 (seriously) and then getting stuck in 3-2/2-3 purgatory. As a result, I've nearly climbed my way back to .500. More importantly, in the words of Josh Lyman, Onto this week's picks as I look to climb above .500 for the first time all season. Last week:5-0 This year: 29-30-1 1. at Under 37 I just don't know how the Lions are going to score. I liked the under even before it was announced that would be unable to start. So I love the under now that for Thursday's game against the Bears. While the Bears' defense has regre sed the way almost everyone on the planet expected, they're still a good unit, and fourth in points allowed per game (17.1). Without the past three games, the Lions are averaging 18.7 points per game. Just three weeks ago, in their first game without Stafford, the Lions faced the Bears and proceeded to put up 13 points. I can't imagine they'll fare much better with Blough, who has never taken a snap in an NFL game. On the other side of the ball, it's not like the Bears have demonstrated the Dylan Strome Men Jersey ability to light up the scoreboard. They're averaging 17.1 points per game -- only four teams have scored fewer points. Even against the Lions' not-good defense three weeks ago, they only managed to score 20 points. Against the ' 27th ranked defense this past week, they scored 19 points. It should come as no surprise to hear that eight of the Bears' 11 games have gone under. Expect more of the same on Thanksgiving. 2. -3 at is great, but his level of play has tailed off in recent weeks. He finished with only one interception in a win over the last week, but he was lucky at least two more of his pa ses weren't picked off, one of which would've swung the game. He won't get nearly as lucky against a Patriots defense that , first in points allowed, fourth in sacks, and first in takeaways. The only quarterback to really experience succe s against New England has been and even though Watson has great mobility, he's not Jackson. Perhaps more importantly, his coach is not John Harbaugh. Bill Belichick vs. Bill O'Brien is a gigantic mismatch. The Texans might be in first place in the division and on track to end up in the postseason Kevin Connauton Men Jersey with the Patriots, but there's a big gap between these two teams. The Patriots are The Texans are 18th. While the Patriots' offense remains a concern, they did just add left tackle back to the starting lineup. This feels like it could be a bounce-back game for the Patriots' offense going up against . And again, coaching matters. We just watched Belichick humiliate Jason Garrett's team by emphasizing special teams. He knows how to attack and exploit weakne ses. I trust he'll come up with a game-plan to contain Watson and the offense should be able to do enough against a bad defense. 3. -3 vs. : Since 2012, the Seahawks are 21-7-2 against the spread in prime time and 22-15-2 against the spread against playoff teams. On Monday night (prime time), the Seahawks will host the Vikings (a likely playoff team). has demonstrated the ability to beat winning teams and win in prime time this season. This pick isn't about him. I think he'll do just fine against a Seahawks defense that is improving (suddenly up to 16th in DVOA after dominating the ). The pick is more about . I just trust him more than Cousins in a big spot. Related: Wilson has been the Seahawks quarterback since 2012 and as the stat above illustrates, Wilson usually performs under pre sure against good teams. He needs a big performance to catch Jackson in the MVP race and I think that's what he'll get. The Vikings' defense is top-10 by DVOA, but once you look at the actual numbers, you'll see there's a near identical gap between 10th (the Vikings) and first (the Patriots), and 10th (the Vikings) and 32nd (the ). To put it another way, Wilson is going up against a defense that is susceptible. The Seahawks have lost only one game this season by double-digits and it Michael Grabner Jersey came at the hands of the unstoppable . So at the very least, I feel like Wilson will have the ball in his hands with a chance to win the game. I'll take that scenario every time. Expect a close game. And expect Wilson to lead the Seahawks to an important win as they look to chase down the in the NFC West. 4. +3 vs. I was a little worried last week when I realized the Cardinals were on their bye week, because I've been riding their recent wave of succe s. I managed to go 5-0 even without them, but it feels good to get them back. I love their chances to cover against the Rams this week -- and I think they'll win too. The Cardinals are 3-7-1, but more importantly -- at least for the purposes of this column -- they're 7-3-1 against the spread, including 7-2-1 as underdogs against the spread. is already a better quarterback than . In his past seven starts, Murray's averaged 233.1 pa sing yards and 43.6 rushing yards per game, and has racked up 12 total touchdowns (two rushing) and only Teppo Numminen Men Jersey one interception. Goff hasn't thrown a touchdown in over a month. In his past three starts, he's averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and has thrown five interceptions. Over the course of the entire season, Murray has been better by a wide margin -- which bears out in the advanced metrics. The point being, the Cardinals have the better quarterback. As a team, the Cardinals (19th in DVOA) are not that far behind the Rams (15th in DVOA). So, I like them to at least cover and probably win. 5. -10 vs. Sing it with me: Andy Reid off the bye. Andy Reid off the bye. Andy Reid off the bye. In his coaching career, . But even if the Chiefs weren't coming off their bye week, I'd still love their chances to smash the Raiders for two very simple reasons: The Chiefs are a good team and the Raiders are not a good team. The Raiders fooled some into thinking they might be good after ripping off three straight wins over the Lions, , and , but after thei
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